Кризис в Китае
Отправлено 18 December 2010 - 04:08 PM
Half of Erenhot is empty. The other half is unfinished
A giant empty hotel sits in the city of Erenhot
These amazing satellite images show sprawling cities built in remote parts of China that have been left completely abandoned, sometimes years after their construction.
Elaborate public buildings and open spaces are completely unused, with the exception of a few government vehicles near communist authority offices.
Some estimates put the number of empty homes at as many as 64 million, with up to 20 new cities being built every year in the country's vast swathes of free land.
The photographs have emerged as a Chinese government think tank warns that the country's real estate bubble is getting worse, with property prices in major cities overvalued by as much as 70 per cent.
Of the 35 major cities surveyed, property prices in eleven including Beijing and Shanghai were between 30 and 50 per cent above their market value, the China Daily said, citing the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Prices in Fuzhou, capital of the southeastern province of Fujian, had the worst property bubble with average house prices more than 70 per cent higher than their market value, according to the survey conducted in September.
The average price in the 35 cities surveyed was nearly 30 per cent above the market value, the report said.
Property prices have remained stubbornly high despite the government adopting a slew of measures since April including hiking minimum downpayments to at least 30 per cent and ordering banks not to provide loans for third home purchases.
Prices in 70 major cities were up 0.2 per cent in October from the previous month and 8.6 percent higher than a year ago, official data showed.
The increase came after prices gained 0.5 per cent month on month in September, which was the first increase since May.
Massive stimulus measures taken since 2008 to fend off the financial crisis injected huge amounts of liquidity in the market and have been blamed for fuelling real estate prices.
'The government target is not clear and policy is incoherent,' CASS senior research Ni Pengfei was quoted saying.
According to research carried out by Time magazine, fixed-asset investment in the Asian country accounted for more than 90 per cent of its overall growth - with residential and commercial real estate investment making up nearly a quarter of that.
Regional governments across China have been building massive real estate projects, including Kangbashi in Inner Mongolia and Zhengzhou New District, which have remained empty, because of the high prices and interest in investment.
Kangbashi, which was built in just five years, was meant to be the urban centre for Ordos City - a wealthy coal-mining hub home to 1.5million people.
It was filled with office towers, administrative centres, museums, theatres and sports facilities as well as thousands of homes, but remains virtually deserted.
Prices have continued to soar, investors have increasingly turned to property speculation fuelling the continued bubble.
The onset of the 2008 global recession was the bursting of the real estate bubble in the U.S. and experts fear a similar situation in China could prove catastrophic for still struggling economies and banking systems.
Beijing has introduced measures to cool 'ridiculous' property prices, but the risks of a crash mean the campaign is unlikely to ease up in the next year.
Public discontent has been fuelled by high prices in China's cities and the measures, introduced in April, have made it more difficult for speculators and developers to hoard land and chase up prices as lending has been restricted.
Wang Shi, chairman of China Vanke - the country's largest property developer - said: 'Tightening measures will not loosen next year.
'If we can control the pace of property price gains within a reasonable range, it's already an achievement.'
Property sales for Vanke already exceeded $15billion so far this year, but Mr Shi has insisted China will not end up in a worse place than Dubai - where a property price bubble imploded during the global financial crisis.
He said: 'It could be really, really bad without the government stepping in.
'If the bubble bursts, Japan's past will be China's present.'
But short-seller Jim Chanos has issued a more dire warning, and said he expected China's economy to implode in a real estate bust.
He said the country was 'on an economic treadmill to hell' and the country's bubble was 'Dubai times 1,000'.
In the 1980s, Tokyo saw a massive rise in property prices and a subsequent crash. The Hong Kong property market experienced a similar phenomenon in the 1990s.
(Author: unknown, Paris, 1968)
Отправлено 18 December 2010 - 04:19 PM
The reason for their angst is clear: A property meltdown in China would imperil the whole world's fledgling economic recovery. Throughout the most severe global downturn in decades, China's economic growth has remained remarkably buoyant. This year, for example, China's GDP will likely rise 9% or more, in contrast to a merely subpar rebound in the U.S. and Europe.
And nothing has driven China's growth more than real estate investment. Last year, fixed-asset investment accounted for more than 90% of China's overall growth, and residential and commercial real estate investment made up nearly a quarter of that.
(See pictures of the global financial crisis.)
For years, regional governments across China have been building massive real estate projects that have attracted both private and corporate buyers. As prices have continued to rise (residential values in 70 large and medium-size cities across China soared in 2009, according to real estate consultancy Colliers International), more investors have become speculators, buying brand-new properties with the sole intention of flipping them.
But since a huge real estate bust in the U.S. in 2008 was the catalyst for the still lingering global recession, many analysts fear a replay in China could prove disastrous.
Indeed, evidence of property oversupply is everywhere. In Beijing, vast swaths of commercial space sit vacant — including floors of retail space right next to the iconic Water Cube, the 2008 Olympics swimming venue.
(See pictures of the best-selling cars in China.)
But throughout the Chinese interior, there are even eerier monuments to an as yet unrealized optimism: entire cities built for millions of inhabitants that stand all but empty.
Perhaps the most stark ghost city is Kangbashi, in Inner Mongolia. Built in just five years, Kangbashi was designed to be the showcase urban center of Ordos City, a relatively wealthy coal-mining hub that's home to 1.5 million people. A public-works project worthy of Kubla Khan's "stately pleasure-dome," Kangbashi is filled with office towers, administrative centers, government buildings, museums, theaters and sports fields — not to mention acre on acre of subdivisions overflowing with middle-class duplexes and bungalows. The only problem: the district was originally designed to house, support and entertain 1 million people, yet hardly anyone lives there. Only a handful of cars drive down Kangbashi's multilane highways, a few government offices are open during the day and an occasional pedestrian, appearing like a hallucination, can be seen trudging down a sidewalk, like a lone survivor of some horror-movie apocalypse.
When bubbles burst, they tend to do so with a bang. With the rest of the world still trying to regain its economic footing, authorities in Beijing — and Ordos, for that matter — are hoping they can deflate their housing bubble without a pop. And it's not just the Chinese who should be praying that they can pull it off.
Read more: http://www.time.com/...l#ixzz18TsHJTSe
(Author: unknown, Paris, 1968)
Отправлено 08 January 2011 - 11:28 AM
Отправлено 13 January 2011 - 12:45 AM
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